The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.
List of contributors viii
Preface xiii
Chapter 1 Predictability of weather and 1 (29)
climate: from theory to practice
T. N. Palmer
Chapter 2 Predictability from a dynamical 30 (10)
meteorological perspective
Brian Hoskins
Chapter 3 Predictability -- a problem 40 (19)
partly solved
Edward N. Lorenz
Chapter 4 The Liouville equation and 59 (40)
atmospheric predictability
Martin Ehrendorfer
Chapter 5 Application of generalised 99 (25)
stability theory to deterministic and
statistical prediction
Petros J. Ioannou
Brian F. Farrell
Chapter 6 Ensemble-based atmospheric data 124 (33)
assimilation
Thomas M. Hamill
Chapter 7 Ensemble forecasting and data 157 (24)
assimilation: two problems with the same
solution?
Eugenia Kalnay
Brian Hunt
Edward Ott
Istvan Szunyogh
Chapter 8 Approximating optimal state 181 (36)
estimation
Brian F. Farrell
Petros J. Ioannou
Chapter 9 Predictability past, 217 (34)
predictability present
Leonard A. Smith
Chapter 10 Predictability of coupled 251 (24)
processes
Axel Timmermann
Fei-Fei Jin
Chapter 11 Predictability of tropical 275 (31)
intraseasonal variability
Duane E. Waliser
Chapter 12 Predictability of seasonal 306 (36)
climate variations: a pedagogical review
J. Shukla
J. L. Kinter
Chapter 13 Predictability of the North 342 (23)
Atlantic thermohaline circulation
Mojib Latif
Holger Pohlmann
Wonsun Park
Chapter 14 On the predictability of 365 (26)
flow-regime properties on interannual to
interdecadal timescales
Franco Molteni
Fred Kucharski
Susanna Corti
Chapter 15 Model error in weather and 391 (37)
climate forecasting
Myles Allen
David Frame
Jamie Kettleborough
David Stainforth
Chapter 16 Observations, assimilation and 428 (31)
the improvement of global weather
prediction -- some results from operational
forecasting and ERA-40
Adrian J. Simmons
Chapter 17 The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction 459 (30)
System
Roberto Buizza
Chapter 18 Limited-area ensemble 489 (25)
forecasting: the COSMO-LEPS system
Stefano Tibaldi
Tiziana Paccagnella
Chiara Marsigli
Andrea Montani
Fabrizio Nerozzi
Chapter 19 Operational seasonal prediction 514 (18)
David L. T. Anderson
Chapter 20 Weather and seasonal climate 532 (29)
forecasts using the superensemble approach
T. N. Krishnamurti
T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar
Won-Tae Yun
Arun Chakraborty
Lydia Stefanova
Chapter 21 Predictability and targeted 561 (23)
observations
Alan Thorpe
Guorun Nina Petersen
Chapter 22 The attributes of forecast 584 (12)
systems: a general framework for the
evaluation and calibration of weather
forecasts
Zoltan Toth
Olivier Talagrand
Yuejian Zhu
Chapter 23 Predictability from a forecast 596 (18)
provider's perspective
Ken Mylne
Chapter 24 Ensemble forecasts: can they 614 (14)
provide useful early warnings?
Francois Lalaurette
Gerald van der Grijn
Chapter 25 Predictability and economic value 628 (17)
David S. Richardson
Chapter 26 A three-tier overlapping 645 (29)
prediction scheme: tools for strategic and
tactical decisions in the developing world
Peter J. Webster
T. Hopson
C. Hoyos
A. Subbiah
H.-R. Chang
R. Grossman
Chapter 27 DEMETER and the application of 674 (19)
seasonal forecasts
Renate Hagedorn
Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
T. N. Palmer
Index 693
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